It’s challenging to suggest a single formula for project success as there are numerous factors that contribute to it, and each project has its unique characteristics. However, one approach to creating a formula for project success is to use a weighted average of various project success factors, such as:

Project Success = (Weighted Sum of Dimension Scores) / (Sum of Weights)

Where the Dimension Scores are the scores of the various dimensions of project success (such as on-time completion, within budget, customer satisfaction, etc.), and the weights represent the relative importance of each dimension in determining overall project success. The weights can be assigned based on the project’s specific objectives, stakeholder priorities, or industry best practices.

For example, suppose a project manager has identified the following dimensions of project success for a particular project: on-time completion (weight = 0.4), within budget (weight = 0.3), and customer satisfaction (weight = 0.3). They could then calculate the project’s overall success score by using the formula:

Project Success = (0.4 x on-time completion score) + (0.3 x within budget score) + (0.3 x customer satisfaction score) / (0.4 + 0.3 + 0.3)

This formula can be customized based on the project’s specific success criteria and requirements, but it provides a general framework for quantifying project success.

Yes, the formula for project success can be improved by factoring in the probability of project failure. One way to do this is by using the concept of expected value. Expected value is a statistical measure that takes into account the probability of different outcomes and their associated values.

In the context of project management, the expected value can be used to calculate the probability-weighted value of project success. The formula for expected value is:

Expected Value = Probability of Success x Value of Success + Probability of Failure x Value of Failure

By incorporating the probability of failure, the formula for project success can be revised as:

Project Success = (Probability of Success x Value of Success) – (Probability of Failure x Value of Failure)

This formula provides a more realistic measure of project success, as it takes into account the likelihood of failure and the potential costs associated with it.